Analysis of feed market conditions in March 2023

(1) Prices of major feed products continued their downward trend.

The monthly average prices of compound feed for fattening pigs, broilers, and laying hens in March were 3.95 RMB, 4.03 RMB, and 3.73 RMB per kilogram
respectively, down 2.0%, 1.0%, and 1.1% month-on-month, respectively, and up 3.9%, 6.1%, and 5.4% year-on-year respectively. .

(2) The prices of major feed raw materials have dropped significantly.

According to monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average price of domestic soybean meal in March was 4.70 RMB per kilogram,
down 4.9% month-on-month and up 1.1% year-on-year. Brazilian soybeans are in the market period, and the expectation of a bumper harvest has driven down
international soybean futures prices.Domestic soybean imports have increased, and soybean meal supply Sufficient, domestic feed demand is weak,
market purchases and sales are not prosperous,and soybean meal prices have fallen sharply.

The average price of feed corn in March was 3.00 RMB per kilogram, down 1.0% month-on-month and up 2.8% year-on-year;

The new season corn grassroots grain sources are coming to an end. Farmers are highly motivated to sell grain and the market supply is sufficient.
At the same time, wheat prices have fallen, driving corn prices to continue to fall.

(3) Cumulatively from January to March, the import volume of major feed raw materials decreased year-on-year.

According to customs statistics, 3.2515 million tons of feed grain raw materials (corn, barley, sorghum, broken rice and corn distillers grains) were imported in March,
a month-on-month decrease of 14.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 24.9%.

Cumulative imports from January to March were 10.0983 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.1%.
The main import source countries were the United States (accounting for 30.1% of total imports), Brazil (accounting for 21.4%), Ukraine (accounting for 20.8%),
and Canada (accounting for 7.8%). ), Argentina (accounting for 6.7%).

For feed protein raw materials (soybean meal, rapeseed meal, sunflower seed meal, peas and fish meal), 807,200 tons were imported in March,
an increase of 13.6% month-on-month and 0.8% year-on-year.

Cumulative imports from January to March were 2.0429 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%.
The main import source countries were Canada (accounting for 33.0% of total imports),
 Ukraine (accounting for 27.1%), and Peru (accounting for 7.2%).

(4) It is expected that the prices of major feed products will continue to fall from high levels in the later period.

In terms of breeding, pig breeding is still in a loss-making stage, egg poultry and meat poultry breeding profits are improving,
aquaculture has entered the seedling stage, and feed demand has rebounded overall.

In terms of main raw material supply, soybean meal, the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that Brazil’s soybean output in the new season will exceed 153 million tons,
 an increase of 23.5 million tons over the previous year, a record high. It coincides with the launch period of Brazilian soybeans,
and the average monthly arrival of domestic soybeans from April to June. The volume is expected to exceed 9 million tons,
and the import cost of Brazilian soybeans will be lower than that of U.S. soybeans.
Domestic soybean supply will be sufficient in the future, and soybean meal prices will continue to decline.

For feed corn, the surplus grain at the grassroots level has been sold, and grain sources have been transferred to traders.
The prices of imported corn and domestic wheat have fallen, putting pressure on the corn market, and prices have remained weak.

Taken together, the costs of major feed raw materials have fallen, and the prices of feed products have continued to fall.